Author: Vreporters

Punch Newspaper

In this piece, ISMAEEL UTHMAN examines emerging power dynamics, regional calculations, and strategies of the major political blocs as the 2027 presidential election draws near

The race to the 2027 presidential election took a new dimension when the Peoples Democratic Party zoned its presidential ticket to the South. The South consists of the South-West (six states), South-South (six states), and the South-East (five states). Already, the South-West has President Bola Tinubu, who has been adopted for a second-term bid by his party, the All Progressives Congress.

However, the two other popular parties, the African Democratic Congress and the Labour Party, have yet to zone their tickets. The National Secretary of Membership Mobilisation and Registration of the ADC, Sadiq Yar’adua, told Sunday PUNCH that it was premature for the party to talk about zoning.

According to him, the ADC will not be limited by regional considerations. “Whoever wins the people’s hearts will become the presidential candidate,” he stated.

Atiku, Obi eye ADC presidential ticket

Peter Obi

Former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, was the candidate of the LP in the 2023 presidential election. He has also indicated interest in contesting the 2027 election with a promise of serving only one term. Obi, who has repeatedly stated that he remains a member of the LP, is a prominent figure in the ADC-led coalition of opposition leaders. His major opponent in 2023, ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is also a leader of the coalition, declared his presidential ambition on August 25. Atiku resigned his membership of the PDP on July 16, after the formation of the ADC. Both Atiku and Obi are said to be eyeing the ADC ticket. However, while Obi may retain the LP ticket in 2027 or even be considered by the PDP, Atiku currently doesn’t have any other platform than the ADC, though he has yet to officially register with the party.

Sunday PUNCH notes that the PDP’s decision to zone its presidency to the South has split the North, with many interest groups and individuals describing it as insensitive. Analysts believe that the North is thirsty for power, scheming to return to the presidency barely two years after power shifted to the South. As of the time of filing this report, only Atiku and the former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party were seen as viable presidential aspirants who have consistently been criticising Tinubu’s administration.

Atiku Abubakar
A file photo of Atiku Abubakar
Going by the 2023 presidential results, Atiku commands a larger part of the northern votes than the other three potential presidential aspirants (Tinubu, Obi, and Kwankwaso). In the last presidential election, Atiku won Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Gombe, Yobe, Bauchi, Adamawa, and Taraba states with 5,229,473 votes. He also won Osun, Akwa Ibom, and Bayelsa states in the South with 637,196 votes, while Kwankwaso won only Kano State with 997,279 out of the 1,496,687 votes he received.

Ethnic, regional voting lines

However, despite not being from the North, Tinubu won Jigawa, Zamfara, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, and Borno with 5,346,686 votes. Political analysts argue that with former President Muhammadu Buhari’s death, the APC might find it difficult to mobilise voters in the North, especially in the face of the unhidden resentment against Tinubu’s administration in the region.

With Atiku and Kwankwaso in the North, and Tinubu, Obi, and the PDP candidate from the South, political pundits believe that the 2027 presidential election will largely be fought along ethnic and regional lines, judging by political developments two years into Tinubu’s administration. Already, some PDP governors and chieftains in the South have declared support for Tinubu’s re-election, while the northern political elite have reportedly been mobilising the electorate against the President.

While some experts argue that Atiku or any other candidate from the North stands a chance of gaining the upper hand in the 2027 election, as he is likely to receive bloc votes in the region, others believe Tinubu’s electoral fortunes have also increased in the South as a result of defections and ethnic campaigns. However, the southern vote is already divided among the PDP, APC, and probably Obi (if he doesn’t join the PDP), with their supporters voting for them. Meanwhile, any politician who emerges as the major northern candidate may enjoy a bloc vote.

Running mate factor and power balance

Analysts also explain that the choice of running mate will play a decisive role in shaping the fortunes of the major contenders. Sunday PUNCH notes that in Nigeria’s power calculus, the vice-presidential slot is often used to balance religion, ethnicity and regional interests. For instance, the current Vice President, Kashim Shettima, helped Tinubu in 2023 to consolidate northern support, particularly in the North-East, despite criticism over the Muslim–Muslim ticket. A misstep in selecting a vice president could alienate critical voting blocs, especially in a contest expected to be tightly fought along ethnic and regional lines.

Political pundits argue that the stakes are even higher for the opposition. A candidate like Atiku would need a credible southern Christian with mass appeal to offset accusations of northern domination, while Obi, if he runs, may have to look towards the North-West or North-East to break into a region where he struggled in 2023. The PDP must pick a northern figure with electoral weight if it hopes to counter Tinubu’s incumbency advantage.

Related News
Alliance as the only strategy for victory

Commenting on the 2027 political calculations, the National President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Council, Zaid Ayuba, said the North would no doubt determine the success or failure of any presidential candidate. He stated that though zoning was a gentleman’s agreement among politicians, alliances were the main strategy delivering victory in every election. Ayuba warned that Tinubu could win the 2027 presidential election if PDP, ADC, and LP failed to unite and present a common opposition against the President.

He said, “Zoning cuts across parties and is always a gentleman’s agreement. But I want to state that whatever they do, the bloc votes come from the North. In any electoral year, if there would be 25 million votes cast, over 17 to 18 million will surely come from the North.

“In 1999, President Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae came from the South to contest the presidential election. Obasanjo won because the northern political voting bloc supported him. The same thing happened in 2007 when late President Umaru Yar’adua and Muhammadu Buhari contested. Yar’adua won because the southern voters stood with him, seeing him as from the ruling party and having an alliance with their southern brothers like Olusegun Obasanjo. In 2011, former President Goodluck Jonathan defeated Buhari because of the power of incumbency. But in 2015, Buhari defeated Jonathan because there was a serious political merger uniting all the opposition parties into one platform.

“In 2027, the scenario will be a replication of what happened in 2023. By the time the likes of Obi, former governors of Sokoto, Kaduna, and Rivers states—Aminu Tambuwal, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi—strengthen the ADC, leaving the likes of Jonathan and others in the PDP, it means there will be a divided opposition. Things will fall apart, and the centre will not hold, because the ADC will pull a very serious vote and the PDP will replace the Labour Party of 2023. Jonathan will appeal to the voters who voted for Obi, leaving the APC to finally win the election. Even if Labour Party decides to bring a candidate from the North, it will not change anything.”

Referencing the last by-elections, Ayuba asserted that it would be difficult to defeat the APC as long as the majority of the voters do not decide independently on election day, and vote-buying continues to thrive. “We witnessed what happened in the last by-elections. People were buying votes at N15,000–N20,000. At the end of the day, people’s expectations were never realised. They thought they might defeat the APC, which they didn’t, because there were causes beyond the people. Majority of the votes hardly decide by themselves. Decisions are made by the elite and people with the right power. People will end up voting. For the opposition to make any difference, the PDP, Labour Party, and ADC must merge or work together. This is based on contemporary political manoeuvres going on.”

Tinubu’s southern bloc votes

One of the principal officials of the APC, who spoke with Sunday PUNCH on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the party had begun moves to neutralise the potential threats from the North. He expressed optimism that Tinubu would get bloc votes from the South, going by the defections and adoptions by opposition figures, while leveraging on APC governors in the North to deliver a reasonable amount of votes.

“We (APC) understand the gang-up against our President in the North, but we must know that the South deserves eight years. We can’t appease the North by shortchanging ourselves. This is politics and the President knows how to play it. We know the risks and the potential threats from the North. It is something that we have started working on to ensure that whatever the case may be, we will have strong votes to complement whatever we bring from the South. The APC governors are on that task and we expect that the South will deliver bloc votes irrespective of the PDP or any other party’s candidate from the region,” he stated.

Southern candidates stand chance in the North

In his analysis, the National Director of Media and Publicity for the Asiwaju Grassroots Foundation, Adeboye Adebayo, believes that no southern presidential candidate will be at a disadvantage from the North. He argues that political history has shown repeatedly that the northern electorate doesn’t vote strictly on the basis of geography, but on the strength of alliances, track record, and the ability of a candidate to assure them of inclusion and development.

“While a northern candidate may naturally enjoy initial sympathy in the region, winning the election is never automatic. Elections are, over time, decided by coalitions, partnerships, and collaboration across regions, and no one zone can singlehandedly determine the outcome of a presidential contest in this country today. A northern aspirant without strong southern acceptance and also, very importantly, a national outlook would struggle to match a sitting President like Bola Tinubu who already enjoys the benefit of incumbency, an entrenched party structure, and the confidence of northern political leaders who have worked with him over decades,” he added.

Adebayo maintains that though resentment may be loud in public discourse among the elite on major media, it doesn’t always reflect electoral reality, saying, “The North is pragmatic; they judge leaders on their ability to deliver security, infrastructure, and economic opportunities.”

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Israel-Palestine Conflict: Nigeria, UK, France , Canada 138 countries endorse two-state solution (Full List)

Nigeria, on Friday, joined 138 other countries to endorse the New York Declaration on the two-state solution between Israel and Palestine at the UN headquarters in New York.

Applause rang out in the UN General Assembly Hall as countries endorsed the declaration on the peaceful settlement of the question of Palestine and implementation of the two-state solution with Israel.

The New York Declaration is the outcome of an international conference held in July at UN Headquarters, organised by France and Saudi Arabia, which resumes later this month.

The General Assembly comprises all 193 UN Member States and 142 countries voted in favour of a resolution backing the document.

Israel voted against it, alongside nine other countries: Argentina, Hungary, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Tonga and the United States, while 12 nations abstained.

Prior to the vote, French Ambassador Jérôme Bonnafont recalled that the New York Declaration “lays out a single roadmap to deliver the two-State solution”.

This involves an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all hostages held there, and the establishment of a Palestinian State that is both viable and sovereign.

The roadmap further calls for the disarmament of Hamas and its exclusion from governance in Gaza, normalisation between Israel and the Arab countries, as well as collective security guarantees.

Speaking ahead of the vote, Israeli Ambassador, Danny Danon, said that “this one-sided Declaration will not be remembered as a step toward peace, only as another hollow gesture that weakens this Assembly’s credibility.”

He said that “Hamas is the biggest winner of any endorsement here today” and will declare it “the fruit of 7th October”.

The high-level international conference in July was held against the backdrop of the war in Gaza and deteriorating prospects for the two-state solution.

In remarks to the opening segment, UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted that the two-state solution was central to a peaceful Middle East.

“The central question for Middle East peace is implementation of the two-State solution, where two independent, sovereign, democratic States – Israel and Palestine – live side-by-side in peace and security.”

(NAN)

Tyler Robinson is the 22-year-old prime suspect identified in the shooting of Charlie Kirk, a conservative leader and founder of Turning Point USA, at Utah Valley University. Here are some facts about him :

• Age and Residence: Tyler Robinson is 22 years old and a local resident of Utah.
• He is from southern Utah
  Robinson grew up in St. George, and he graduated from Pine View High School, Utah, United States, in 2020.

. He has no criminal history
State records show Robinson has no prior offences. He is a registered voter in Utah but has no party affiliation.

. He comes from a close-knit family .Social media posts from his mother, Amber, show him as the eldest of three sons, often pictured with his family on outdoor trips and vacations to the Grand Canyon.

. He was academically gifted
In 2020, his mother shared his ACT test score of 34 out of 36, placing him among the top 1% of test takers. Robinson later earned an academic scholarship to Utah State University, where officials said he briefly studied for one semester in 2021.

• Apprehension: He was turned in to the authorities by his father and a minister in southern Utah after the FBI circulated photos and videos of the suspect.
• Crime Details: Robinson allegedly shot Kirk in the neck from an elevated spot about 200 yards away from the event tent. Kirk was pronounced dead at a local hospital.
• Investigation: The FBI received around 7,000 tips about the assassination, and a reward of $100,000 was announced for information leading to the suspect’s capture.
• Charges and Penalty: President Donald Trump stated that he hopes Robinson will be found guilty and receive the death penalty. Utah Governor Spencer Cox also confirmed that the state will pursue the death penalty.
• Background: Not much is known about Robinson’s background or motivations for the crime. Trump mentioned that it appears to be a one-off incident, but the investigation is still ongoing.

SunNewsPaper

•Power struggles mount in Lagos, Oyo, Bauchi, Kwara,Gombe, Borno, others

Ahead of the 2027 general elections, succession politics and the accompanying tensions have already gripped some states where the incumbent governors are in their final terms. In politics, a successful succession plan is a hallmark of a good leader, and for the concerned governors, it’s a make-or-or mar issue that will determine their legacy and the future of their political parties in their respective states.

Traditionally, the issue of succession has always been a very hard nut to crack in Nigeria, especially in those states with a history of fierce political rivalries. Most times, the tensions arise from competing interests among political godfathers, prominent figures and ethnic or religious groups. For a successful plan, the issue is not just about picking a person; it’s about managing a delicate balance among competing interests, historical grievances and personal ambitions.

Currently, some of the states experiencing succession tension, according to Sunday Sun findings, are Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Bauchi, Gombe, Nasarawa, Kwara and Borno.

Lagos

In Lagos State, where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has just managed to come out of the recent crisis that followed the selection of candidates for the just concluded local government elections, internal power struggles has intensified significantly. With Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu nearing the end of his second term, the stakeholders are currently in a state of uncertainty, as the contest for influence among the state gladiators, godfathers, prominent personalities and political blocs within the party has created a highly charged atmosphere. While the graveyard peace reigns in the party, the question of who will succeed Sanwolu is a major point of discussion and tension.

Zulum
Over the years, Lagos politics has been dominated by the influence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who had played a critical role in anointing successive governors. He, no doubt, influenced the emergence of Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode and Babajide Sanwo-Olu. However, the current uncertainty stems from a growing perception that he (Tinubu) may be grooming his son, Seyi Tinubu, to become the next governor. This speculation has been fuelled by a series of public endorsements for Seyi’s candidacy from various groups.

The possibility of Seyi Tinubu’s candidacy is a major source of tension because he has not held a political office before, and many believe it would disrupt the established power-sharing arrangements within the Lagos APC.

The potential entry of Seyi Tinubu into the race is already a source of concern to many stakeholders. A source within the party hierarchy, who spoke with Sunday Sun on condition of anonymity, said Seyi’s rumoured ambition would upset the apple cart. “There are lots of speculations going on out there. Some of them are borne out of imagination. However, we are not unmindful of the challenges we have ahead of us. As we all know, Lagos State is very critical to the re-election bid of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. So, we are approaching the succession issue with caution. While I cannot dismiss Seyi’s ambition with a wave of hand, everybody is watching Asiwaju’s body language. I know he will not want to upset the apple cart at this delicate time. Above all, APC is a party that thrives on discipline and loyalty. Based on this standard, I can assure you that everything will be sorted out without much acrimony. Let’s wait, when we get there, we will cross the Rubicon,” the source declared.

Apart from Seyi, there is also a potential power struggle among the various factions supporting other prominent individuals like Dr Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat, the current deputy governor, who was initially seen by many as Sanwo-Olu’s natural successor, and who has a strong political track record, Hon. Mudashiru Obasa, the long-serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, who is a powerful figure with significant grassroots, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, the Chief of Staff to the President and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, who is a highly influential figure in both Lagos and national politics.

The number of contestants is swelling by the day. On Thursday, former Governor Akinwumi Ambode announced his intension to take another shot at the governorship in 2027, while also declaring support for the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Ambode made his position known in Badagry during a sensitization programme on Permanent Voter Card (PVC) registration. Represented by the Director-general of the Tinubu-Ambo Support Group, Dr Seyi Bamigbade, the former governor said he was offering himself to serve Lagos once again with a renewed vision to build on past gains and respond to present challenges. “We believe both President Tinubu and Ambode represent continuity, progress and people-focused governance,” he stated.

The issue of zoning and political rotation is equally at play. There are calls for a governor from a specific senatorial district or for the power to shift to an indigenous Lagosian. All these are a reflection of the intricate and high-stakes political manoeuvring taking place ahead of the 2027 election.

Ogun

Ogun is another state where the tenure of the incumbent Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, will end in 2027. For him, extra care needs to be taken to avoid the immediate past experience under former governor Ibikunle Amosun who unilaterally anointed Hon AbdulKabir Adekunle Akinlade as his preferred candidate for the 2019 governorship election, leading to the emergence of a rival fashion within the APC. At the height of the ensuing crisis, Akinlade had to leave the APC to join the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) where he ran for the governorship race and lost to Prince Abiodun. Though Governor Abiodun has not indicated interest in any particular individual eyeing the governorship seat, tension is gradually building up within the APC ahead of the upcoming 2027 gubernatorial election. One of the loyal supporters of a prominent contender told Sunday Sun that underground plots by some individuals allegedly close to the Secretary to the State Government SSG, Tokunbo Talabi, were already scheming to adopt indirect primary to tilt the result in favour of a particular candidate has been uncovered. According to him, the individuals involved have started mobilising party members to support indirect primary.

“These desperate cronies calling themselves politicians have gone to the extent of involving themselves in an oath-taking. These individuals who are largely from Ijebu North are currently taking ward chair, Secretary, women leader, youth leader and other Exco members through the process of oath taking. This is pure politics of immorality, demonic ritual and dare devil high-handedness. The leaders who are engaging in this oath-taking don’t wish the party well,” he fumed.

Meanwhile the Ogun APC has denied the allegations of oath-taking. It described the allegation against its leadership, as not only wild and unsubstantiated, but also malicious, unfounded and libellous.

A statement signed by the Director of Publicity of the party, Nuberu Olufemi, on Friday, in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, said that no leader of Ogun APC engaged in any ritual oath-taking activity, declaring that: “The publication is entirely false, baseless, and politically motivated.”

“The APC categorically denies the existence of any ritual oath-taking event involving its members or leaders. The claims are not only fabricated, but also designed to incite public disaffection, spread fear, and damage the reputation of the party and its officials. The event described in the publication is a complete fiction, and the party dissociates itself entirely from such irresponsible reporting.

“As a law-abiding and responsible political organisation, the APC operates strictly within the framework of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the Electoral Act, and its own constitution.

While oath-taking is a recognised constitutional practice for affirming loyalty and service to the nation, it is strictly regulated by the Oaths Act, which outlines the qualifications of authorised persons to administer oaths and the purposes for which they may be administered.

The APC condemns any action that contravenes these legal and ethical standards,” the statement reads partly

The brewing tension in the state partly borders on the long-standing issue of political equity for the Ogun West Senatorial District. The perceived marginalisation of the region highlights the historical political imbalance in the state. Since its creation in 1976, no elected governor has come from the Ogun West Senatorial District, comprising the Yewa and Awori people. The Yewa and Awori are two major sub-ethnic groups within the Yoruba ethnic group in Ogun West senatorial district. However, the governorship has rotated between Ogun Central and Ogun East, peopled by the Egba and Ijebu respectively. This has fuelled a strong and enduring sentiment of political marginalization, leading to a renewed push for a governor from Ogun West in the 2027 election.

The ambition of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, is at the centre of the renewed agitation for a change of status quo. A notable figure from the Yewa/Awori axis, who spoke with Sunday Sun in confidence, said Adeola’s candidacy is seen by many in his district as the vehicle to finally achieve their long-held dream of producing a governor. His supporters frame his ambition as a matter of politics equity and political justice, aiming to correct the historical imbalance. They believe that his experience as a long serving lawmaker and financial acumen would be beneficial for Ogun state.

The Ogun West perceived feeling of alienation is what is currently raising political tension in the state. Prominent stakeholders from the region, including traditional rulers, community groups, and political leaders, argue that the agitation for power shift is not just about personal ambition but about correcting a historical imbalance and giving the Yewa/Awori people a sense of belonging and inclusion in the state’s leadership.

One of the leading figures in Senators District, who did not want his name mentioned, expressed concern over the perceived silence of Governor Abiodun on their agitation. “After decades of being shut out of the governorship, it is now the turn of the Yewa/Awori people to lead the state, based on principles of fairness and rotational power-sharing. Ogun West is the proverbial fleece that lays the golden eggs. It is an irony that the region that is the economic backbone of Ogun State where the major industries are located has been shut out of power for 47 years. While giving Governor Abiodun the benefit of doubt, his perceived silence over the sustained agitation for power shift is making many of us uncomfortable. It is our hope that the APC stakeholders will see reason to redress the prolonged injustice we have suffered. Adeola’s gubernatorial ambition is inextricably linked to the collective struggle of our people to achieve political fairness and equal representation within Ogun state,” he posited.

Many people believe that Yayi would leverage his closeness with President Tinubu to push for his candidacy.

Amidst the growing tension and unrestrained political intrigues, the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, a former Minister of Steel and Immediate past Nigerian High Commission to the United Kingdom, Ambassador Sarafadeen Ishola and Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka are among notable figures also believed to be warming up for the governorship contest.

The opposition PDP is not left out of the race. However, the party’s internal politics in Ogun State is a complex one. Though no official declaration of intent has been made by any candidate, notable figures who are expected to be in the running for the governorship include Oladipupo Olatunde Adebutu, the party’s candidate in the 2023 election, Segun Sowunmi who has been a vocal critic of the APC-led government in the state and Jimi Lawal, a veteran politician who also contested the PDP governorship ticket in 2023. The PDP will have to consider how it addresses this issue zoning arrangement in its choice of a candidate. While none of the top three contenders are from Ogun West, the party’s strategy on this matter could determine its appeal to voters.

Kwara

The succession plan for the 2027 gubernatorial election is also a source of tension within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kwara State. This is primarily because Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is serving his second and final term, which will end in 2027, creating a leadership vacuum and opening up a contest for the governor’s office. Ahead of the next cycle of election, several key figures from both the ruling APC and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are positioning themselves for the contest. Those angling for the ticket of the APC include Senator Sadiq Umar, a two-term Senator representing Kwara North, Speaker Salihu Danladi, also a prominent figure from Kwara North, Senator Saliu Mustapha, representing Kwara Central with a cult-like grassroots following and Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, among others. Seriki is believed to be a loyalist of Governor AbdulRazaq. He is being rumoured to be a “Plan B” candidate for the governor should the Kwara North zoning plan fail. His rumoured connections to powerful figures in Abuja are also considered a factor in his potential candidacy.

The PDP, led by former Senate President Bukola Saraki, is also a major force in the state and is steadily regrouping to reclaim power. Saraki, the former Senate President remains the undisputed leader of the PDP in Kwara. Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi, the PDP’s candidate in the 2023 governorship election, and Aliyu Ahman-Pategi, a former member of the House of Representatives are the leading figures who are likely to join the race. Abdullahi has a strong political base, especially in his Kwara North senatorial district, and will be looking to capitalise on any rift within the APC. Ahman-Pategi is also another notable figure from Kwara North who is likely to be a part of the PDP’s succession conversation.

However, there is no clear indication of a single anointed candidate, which fuels uncertainty and a scramble for position among potential aspirants.

Gombe

Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe State, like any second-term governor in Nigeria, is facing the complex challenge of managing his succession. The uncertainty lies in who Governor Yahaya might choose to support. While he has not publicly declared his preferred candidate, his actions, appointments, and relationships with various political figures are being closely watched for clues.

Within the APC, there are prominent figures with gubernatorial ambitions, and their struggle for the party’s ticket is a primary source of internal tension. This includes members of his cabinet, his political allies, and other party heavyweights who believe they are best suited to lead the state.

The opposition, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is also active, with candidates like Mohammed Jibrin Barde, who contested against Yahaya in the 2023 election, positioning themselves for another run. The opposition is likely to try and capitalize on any internal rifts within the APC.

Governor Yahaya will need to manage the competing interests of various political blocs, including traditional rulers, religious leaders, and different senatorial districts, to prevent a major fallout within the party.

Oyo

Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, while not facing a succession crisis in the traditional sense of a breakdown of government, is at the centre of a tense and complex political succession as his second approaches its end in 2027. The dispute is primarily within his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and revolves around who will succeed him.

Governor Makinde has not yet publicly endorsed a candidate to succeed him. His silence, while perhaps strategic, is a major source of tension. The lack of a clear signal from Makinde has opened the door for various factions and aspirants to begin their political manoeuvring, leading to internal wrangling. One major factor in the succession battle is the unwritten political agreement for power rotation within the state’s senatorial districts. Since the return to democracy, the governorship has largely been dominated by figures from the Ibadan zone (Oyo South and parts of Oyo Central). This has led to a growing demand for a governor from other zones, particularly Oyo North, which feels politically marginalized. Aspirants from these zones are pushing for a power shift, arguing for equity and fairness.

The governor’s own position as a political leader from Ibadan makes the balancing act of selecting a successor from another zone a difficult one, as it could alienate his political base. Sunday Sun reliably gathered that some factions have accused Governor Makinde of running the party like a private enterprise, with a lack of reward for loyalty and a growing culture of imposition. This has led to the resignation of some key party officials, highlighting the internal friction.

Makinde’s growing influence within the PDP at the national level and his independent stance have been a source of tension, which could have a ripple effect on the state’s politics.

Apart from PDP aspirants, the Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, Mr Bimbo Adekanmbi, Dr Debo Akande, Beulah Adeoye, Rilwan Adesoji Akanbi, Bayo Shittu, Senator Teslim Folarin, Senator Fatai Buhari, Akeem Agbaje and Prince Kayode Oyetunde Bayewuwon are leading contenders in the opposition APC in Oyo State. They are all warming up to slug it out with their rival contender in the PDP.

Borno

Like other states, Governor Babagana Zulum’s second and final term draws to a close in 2027. Governor Zulum is an immensely popular and well-regarded governor, not just in Borno but across Nigeria, due to his focus on security, infrastructure, and good governance.

The question of who will possibly fill his shoes and maintain the same level of performance and public trust is a major source of concern for many in the state.

While it is widely expected that Governor Zulum will play a crucial role in anointing his successor, he has not publicly revealed his preferred candidate. According to findings by Sunday Sun, this silence is the primary source of the confusion in the APC camp as various aspirants and their factions are left to speculate and jostle for his attention and favour.

The Vice President, Kashim Shettima, is a political heavyweight and the former governor who anointed Zulum as his successor. The relationship between Zulum and Shettima is critical. While it is widely seen as a strong one, the dynamics of a new succession could be different. The political calculations of both men, as well as President Bola Tinubu’s potential influence, will be major determinants in who gets the APC ticket.

Among prominent members of the state’s cabinet and the National Assembly who are jostling for the governorship ticket of the APC is the Deputy Governor, Umar Usman Kadafur, who is often seen as a natural successor.

Nasarawa

In Nasarawa State, Governor Abdullahi Sule, is currently grappling with the complex issue of succession. Some of the notable contenders across party lines are Senator Aliyu Wadada (SDP), Dr Musa Ahmed Muhammed popularly called Barade Nasarawa, former Minister of Environment, Muhammed-Hassan Abdullahi and former governorship candidate of PDP in 2023 election, David Emmanuel Ombugadu. Others are Prof Muhammed Haruna, Dr Faisal Shuaibu, Shehu Tukur, Abu Giza and Muham

Punch Newspaper

Confusion has erupted online over a supposed 5% fuel surcharge under Nigeria’s new tax laws, with many fearing a sudden increase in fuel prices.

The chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, on Saturday through a post on X, clarified what is fact and what is fiction.

The controversy arises from the recent passage of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, which consolidates and harmonises previous tax laws.

Some social media posts suggested that President Bola Tinubu’s administration had introduced a new surcharge on fuel, sparking public concern.

Oyedele clarified: “The charge is not a new tax introduced by the current administration. The provision already exists under the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (Amendment) Act, 2007. Its restatement in the new Tax Act is for harmonisation and transparency rather than immediate implementation.”

According to Oyedele, the surcharge is meant to fund road infrastructure, an area that has historically suffered from underfunding.

Over the years, Nigeria’s road network has faced chronic maintenance challenges, resulting in potholes, travel delays, and higher vehicle operating costs.

Oyedele further noted that the surcharge is intended to create a dedicated, predictable funding source for road construction and maintenance.

Oyedele addressed key questions raised by citizens:

Will the surcharge start automatically in January 2026?

No. It will only take effect when the Minister of Finance issues an order published in the Official Gazette:

“The surcharge does not take effect automatically with the new tax laws. It will only commence when the Minister of Finance issues an order published in the Official Gazette as stated under Chapter 7 of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025. This safeguard ensures careful consideration of timing and economic conditions before implementation,” Oyedele stated.

Does it apply to all fuels?

No. Household energy products such as kerosene, LPG, and CNG are exempt. Clean and renewable energy products are also excluded to support Nigeria’s energy transition agenda.

Why maintain the surcharge amid economic hardship?

Oyedele explained that the fund is meant as a dedicated mechanism for road maintenance:

He said, “The surcharge is designed as a dedicated fund for road infrastructure and maintenance. If implemented effectively, it will provide safer travel conditions, reduce travel time and cost, lower logistics costs and vehicle maintenance expenses, which will benefit the wider economy. This practice is virtually universal with over 150 countries imposing various charges ranging between 20% to 80% of fuel products to guarantee regular investment in road infrastructure.”

Could subsidy savings cover road funding instead?

The Chairman of theCommittee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms said: “While subsidy savings will provide some funding, they are insufficient to meet Nigeria’s huge and recurring road infrastructure needs among other public finance needs. A dedicated fund ensures reliable and predictable financing for roads, complementing the budget and ensuring roads are not left underfunded.”

Does this contradict the tax reform objective of easing citizens’ burden?

Oyedele reassured: “The reforms have already reduced multiple taxes and removed or suspended several charges that directly affect households and small businesses, such as VAT on fuel, excise tax on telecoms, and the cybersecurity levy. By harmonising earmarked taxes, government is reducing duplication and ensuring a more efficient tax system.”

Why not remove the surcharge entirely?

He clarified: “Yes, the surcharge has been removed from the FERMA Act and incorporated into the new tax laws which are designed to provide a forward-looking legal framework for Nigeria. Keeping this provision in place within a harmonised legal framework ensures Nigeria is prepared to address critical challenges, such as sustainable road financing and even climate change impacts. It is not about immediate implementation, but to ensure the law provides a clear and effective framework for when it becomes necessary in the future.”

In summary, Oyedele stressed that the surcharge is not new, not immediate, and selectively applied. Its inclusion in the law is about transparency, preparedness, and sustainable funding for Nigeria’s roads, and it aims to address long-standing gaps in infrastructure financing.